2024 Presidential Election - Some Numbers and Some Thoughts

County Convention December 4th

JOIN US FOR OUR COUNTY CONVENTION ON DECEMBER 4TH

CALL TO CONVENTION

The Houghton County Democratic Party will conduct our County Convention on December 4th beginning at 7 PM. (Our regular monthly meeting will begin immediately following the conclusion of the Convention.)

PURPOSE OF THE CONVENTION

Per the Bylaws of the MDP, Article 4.1:

2024 Presidential Election - Some Numbers and Some Thoughts

We’ve now reached the point in this year’s election where all Michigan counties, and the state itself, have certified election results. On Friday the Michigan Board of State Canvassers, consisting of two Democrats and two Republicans, met and, with little drama (in contrast to 2020), voted 4-0 to certify the election results. Here’s a look at some election numbers, along with some ruminations about what they might mean.

TRUMP’S MARGIN OF VICTORY LOCALLY AND NATIONALLY

The certified results for Houghton County show VP Harris got 7,881 votes while Donald Trump took 11,181 votes to earn a total of 58% of the Presidential vote in the County. In percentage terms, Trump’s victory is the largest since Lyndon Johnson won 66% of the votes in the county in 1964. (Richard Nixon in 1972 earned 58% - the same margin as Trump.)

So, as far as Houghton County goes, Trump won a pretty resounding victory. Nationwide however, it’s quite a different story. As the vote counts have continued toward certification across the country Donald Trump’s margin of victory has shrunk quite considerably. Despite his talk on Election night of “an unprecedented and powerful mandate”, he actually has an historically small margin of the popular vote. His popular vote margin of victory against VP Harris is only 1.64% (a median of the margin reported by the national press last week - which ranged from 1.62% to 1.68%).

Trump is on track to have the tightest popular vote victory this century, with the exception of Al Gore who won the popular vote by 0.52% but lost the Electoral College. The Nation reports that “of all the 59 presidential elections since the nation’s founding, it appears that—after all of the 2024 votes are counted—only five popular vote winners in history will have prevailed by smaller percentage margins than Trump.”

In fact, the latest vote counts reported by the press show that Trump’s percentage of the popular vote has fallen below 50 percent. And, Politifact notes that his Electoral College victory “ranks in the middle of the pack for elections since 1960”. And the Republican control of both the Senate and the House will be paper thin.

All of which tends to show that the President-elect’s talk of a mandate was not only premature but just plain wrong.

VP HARRIS’ HOUGHTON COUNTY VOTE TOTAL

Some of us have been asking ourselves how we could have been so wrong about VP Harris’ chances when the “vibes” and the “feel” were so good. Many people commented before the election that it felt like the Obama years.

In fact, the vibe WAS good here in Houghton County. VP Harris’ total of 7,881 votes in the county is the highest number of votes any Democratic candidate has received since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. In terms of the number of local votes received, Harris outperformed Obama, and both Hillary and Bill Clinton.

So the hard work all of us put into the election this fall DID achieve results. In terms of contributing our share to the state total, and thus the Electoral College, we did well. Unfortunately, the number of votes in the county for the Republican grew by 7.74% this Presidential year, over a larger base from 2020, and overwhelmed us.

(You can see a spreadsheet of Houghton County Presidential Election vote counts from 1920 to 2024 at this web page.)

TRUMP WILL BE OUR OLDEST PRESIDENT

When Donald Trump takes office he will be the oldest President inaugurated in American history at the age of 78 years and 220 days, beating Joe Biden’s inaugural age by a few months. The concerns that were raised on the campaign trail about his age and cognitive abilities have quieted somewhat since Election Day, but they are still there. How this will impact him and his second presidency is yet to be revealed.

MDP Chair Resigns

Lavora Barnes, chair of the Michigan Democratic Party since 2019, announced on November 14th that she is stepping down from her post. In her announcement Barnes said:

Reacting to the announcement Governor Whitmer called Barnes “an incredible leader” who “built back our infrastructure to deliver transformational wins in 2018, 2020, and 2022, including the election and reelection of three statewide Democratic candidates and the first Democratic trifecta in 40 years.”

Electing a new state party leader will be prominent on the agenda for the MDP Spring Convention. There are at least two declared candidates so far - Mark Ludwig, current Rural Caucus chair, and Curtis Hertel, state senator and losing congressional candidate for Michigan’s 10th Congressional District (Elissa Slotkin’s congressional seat). We understand at least one candidate has already said he will be touring the UP. We’ll keep you posted.

Virtual Training on Repeat - What is a Precinct Delegate?

We’ve talked before about the importance of precinct delegates to the functioning of a County Democratic Party, and the need for more folks to step up to this important role.

The precinct delegate is the elected office closest to the people. As a precinct delegate you would represent the people of your precinct to the party, and represent the party back to your constituency. Precinct delegates help get people involved in the party and in campaigns. They represent the party in its local conventions, and help shape the party’s platform and public positions. Precinct delegates are the foundation of the party.

If you are interested in, or have thought about becoming a delegate for your precinct there is another Zoom-based training opportunity being offered in December by the National Democratic Training Committee. The course will help you better understand not only the role and responsibility of a precinct delegate, but also help explain how local county parties like ours work.

WHAT: What is a Democratic Precinct Delegate?, an NDTC Virtual Live Training Course

WHERE: By Zoom

WHEN: Monday, December 9th from 1 to 2 PM. This is a live training session. It will repeat, so if you can’t make this time slot we can help you find the next session.

SIGN UP: https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/743606/

Our Next Monthly Meeting

Our general party member meetings are the first Wednesday of every month at the Super 8 Motel in Houghton at 7:00 p.m. unless otherwise announced. You can also attend by Zoom - your email newsletter will have the Zoom details for each meeting.

You do not need to be a member to attend our meetings, and we would welcome you to join us.

WHAT: Potluck at 6 PM, Meeting immediately following the County Convention which begins at 7 PM.

WHERE: In the conference room at the Houghton Super 8, and by Zoom

WHEN: December 4th

Third Annual MDP Rural Caucus

Mark your calendars - our friends in the Rural Caucus have let us know that the 3rd annual MDP Rural Caucus Summit will be held next April 10th through the 12th. The Kewadin Casino and Resort in Sault Ste Marie will once again be the venue.

Several HCDP members attended the last Summit and all reported that it was a worthwhile event. Top keynote speakers are expected again next year, along with training sessions on running for rural office, rural party building, messaging, and much more.

Governmental & Community Meetings

There are no scheduled County, City or Village council meetings this week.